New Seat Details - Thetford and Downham Market

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Thetford and Downham Market been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	30,370	61.3%
LAB	14,116	28.5%
UKIP	2,495	5.0%
LIB	2,465	5.0%
Green	103	0.2%
OTH	32	0.1%
CON Majority	16,254	32.8%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Thetford and Downham Market: Map

List of old seats forming part of Thetford and Downham Market

Old seat: Cambridgeshire North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cambridgeshire North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cambridgeshire North East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Cambridgeshire	Downham Villages	3,422	Cambridgeshire North East	1,610	345	63	45	26	0	0	14	2,103
East Cambridgeshire	Littleport East	3,694	Thetford and Downham Market	1,595	554	199	60	82	0	0	19	2,509
East Cambridgeshire	Littleport West	2,358	Thetford and Downham Market	908	439	145	103	21	0	0	13	1,629
East Cambridgeshire	Sutton	2,986	Cambridgeshire North East	1,098	424	162	116	64	0	0	9	1,873
Fenland	Bassenhally	3,769	Cambridgeshire North East	1,507	580	174	59	28	0	0	5	2,353
Fenland	Benwick, Coates and Eastrea	3,449	Cambridgeshire North East	1,574	379	46	48	59	0	0	7	2,113
Fenland	Birch	2,101	Cambridgeshire North East	814	302	98	76	16	0	0	4	1,310
Fenland	Clarkson	1,270	Cambridgeshire North East	592	400	34	73	17	0	0	6	1,122
Fenland	Doddington and Wimblington	3,568	Cambridgeshire North East	1,616	344	55	50	23	0	0	5	2,093
Fenland	Elm and Christchurch	3,674	Cambridgeshire North East	1,468	537	51	147	75	0	0	9	2,287
Fenland	Kirkgate	1,529	Cambridgeshire North East	679	276	33	73	13	0	0	3	1,077
Fenland	Lattersey	2,082	Cambridgeshire North East	975	249	40	31	14	0	0	2	1,311
Fenland	Manea	1,803	Cambridgeshire North East	793	196	24	25	11	0	0	9	1,058
Fenland	March East	5,591	Cambridgeshire North East	1,939	1,176	107	204	46	0	0	26	3,498
Fenland	March North	5,314	Cambridgeshire North East	2,247	914	342	97	130	0	0	38	3,768
Fenland	March West	5,339	Cambridgeshire North East	2,084	910	93	85	105	0	0	25	3,302
Fenland	Medworth	1,446	Cambridgeshire North East	630	329	34	68	29	0	0	3	1,093
Fenland	Octavia Hill	3,167	Cambridgeshire North East	1,406	848	68	151	32	0	0	7	2,512
Fenland	Parson Drove and Wisbech St Mary	3,920	Cambridgeshire North East	1,547	514	176	58	24	0	0	4	2,323
Fenland	Peckover	1,646	Cambridgeshire North East	727	272	32	69	14	0	0	2	1,116
Fenland	Roman Bank	5,146	Cambridgeshire North East	2,029	667	73	191	33	0	0	14	3,007
Fenland	Slade Lode	1,867	Cambridgeshire North East	889	235	36	29	15	0	0	9	1,213
Fenland	St Andrews	2,036	Cambridgeshire North East	823	244	42	31	40	0	0	10	1,190
Fenland	Staithe	1,790	Cambridgeshire North East	718	426	37	84	15	0	0	3	1,283
Fenland	Stonald	2,023	Cambridgeshire North East	783	240	86	29	31	0	0	2	1,171
Fenland	The Mills	2,161	Cambridgeshire North East	1,009	230	40	33	16	0	0	8	1,336
Fenland	Waterlees Village	2,969	Cambridgeshire North East	1,576	844	64	82	31	0	0	28	2,625
Fenland	Wenneye	1,659	Cambridgeshire North East	708	196	29	58	13	0	0	9	1,013
	Total	81,779		34,344	13,070	2,383	2,175	1,023	0	0	293	53,288

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cambridgeshire North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Norfolk South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Norfolk South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Norfolk South West				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Breckland	All Saints and Wayland	1,937	Norfolk Mid	1,060	275	56	79	0	0	0	0	1,470
Breckland	Ashill	596	Norfolk Mid	246	87	18	24	0	0	0	0	375
Breckland	Bedingfield	2,336	Thetford and Downham Market	1,150	278	47	41	0	0	0	0	1,516
Breckland	Forest	2,162	Thetford and Downham Market	1,054	378	51	42	0	0	0	0	1,525
Breckland	Guiltcross	2,470	Norfolk Mid	1,024	376	49	38	0	0	0	0	1,487
Breckland	Harling and Heathlands	2,478	Norfolk Mid	1,152	279	55	42	0	0	0	0	1,528
Breckland	Launditch	27	Norfolk Mid	13	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	16
Breckland	Nar Valley	2,081	Thetford and Downham Market	848	292	52	77	0	0	0	0	1,269
Breckland	Swaffham	5,833	Thetford and Downham Market	2,623	807	132	111	0	0	0	0	3,673
Breckland	The Buckenhams and Banham	1,139	Norfolk Mid	528	177	27	19	0	0	0	0	751
Breckland	Thetford Boudica	3,290	Thetford and Downham Market	1,300	888	220	162	0	0	0	0	2,570
Breckland	Thetford Burrell	3,696	Thetford and Downham Market	1,251	1,416	163	181	0	0	0	0	3,011
Breckland	Thetford Castle	3,590	Thetford and Downham Market	1,625	1,031	253	193	0	0	0	0	3,102
Breckland	Thetford Priory	4,044	Thetford and Downham Market	1,509	1,742	183	219	0	0	0	0	3,653
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Airfield	3,570	Thetford and Downham Market	1,921	592	109	173	0	0	0	0	2,795
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Denton	5,513	Thetford and Downham Market	2,620	1,033	138	222	0	0	0	0	4,013
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Downham Old Town	2,040	Thetford and Downham Market	759	422	69	86	0	0	0	0	1,336
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	East Downham	2,208	Thetford and Downham Market	947	518	64	44	0	0	0	0	1,573
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Emneth with Outwell	3,744	Thetford and Downham Market	1,599	565	97	140	0	0	0	0	2,401
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Hilgay with Denver	1,901	Thetford and Downham Market	914	233	33	32	0	0	0	0	1,212
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Mershe Lande	1,993	Thetford and Downham Market	806	306	53	80	0	0	0	0	1,245
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	North Downham	1,843	Thetford and Downham Market	658	309	49	32	0	0	0	0	1,048
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	South Downham	1,903	Thetford and Downham Market	681	302	45	71	0	0	0	0	1,099
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	St Lawrence	1,929	Thetford and Downham Market	925	271	39	38	0	0	0	0	1,273
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Upwell and Delph	3,916	Thetford and Downham Market	1,644	539	88	136	0	0	0	0	2,407
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Walton	2,126	Norfolk North West	1,000	261	39	38	0	0	0	0	1,338
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Watlington	1,957	Thetford and Downham Market	664	394	105	78	0	0	0	0	1,241
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Wiggenhall	1,664	Thetford and Downham Market	664	274	50	73	0	0	0	0	1,061
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Wimbotsham with Fincham	2,029	Thetford and Downham Market	969	226	38	34	0	0	0	0	1,267
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Wissey	1,930	Thetford and Downham Market	736	307	43	67	0	0	0	0	1,153
	Total	75,945		32,890	14,581	2,365	2,572	0	0	0	0	52,408

The full details of these calculations are given on the Norfolk South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Thetford and Downham Market

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Thetford and Downham Market
Breckland	Bedingfield	2,252	Norfolk South West	1,150	278	47	41	0	0	0	0	1,516
Breckland	Forest	2,267	Norfolk South West	1,054	378	51	42	0	0	0	0	1,525
Breckland	Nar Valley	1,884	Norfolk South West	848	292	52	77	0	0	0	0	1,269
Breckland	Swaffham	5,456	Norfolk South West	2,623	807	132	111	0	0	0	0	3,673
Breckland	Thetford Boudica	3,817	Norfolk South West	1,300	888	220	162	0	0	0	0	2,570
Breckland	Thetford Burrell	4,473	Norfolk South West	1,251	1,416	163	181	0	0	0	0	3,011
Breckland	Thetford Castle	4,608	Norfolk South West	1,625	1,031	253	193	0	0	0	0	3,102
Breckland	Thetford Priory	5,427	Norfolk South West	1,509	1,742	183	219	0	0	0	0	3,653
East Cambridgeshire	Littleport East	3,973	Cambridgeshire North East	1,595	554	199	60	82	0	0	19	2,509
East Cambridgeshire	Littleport West	2,580	Cambridgeshire North East	908	439	145	103	21	0	0	13	1,629
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Airfield	4,152	Norfolk South West	1,921	592	109	173	0	0	0	0	2,795
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Denton	5,963	Norfolk South West	2,620	1,033	138	222	0	0	0	0	4,013
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Downham Old Town	1,987	Norfolk South West	759	422	69	86	0	0	0	0	1,336
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	East Downham	2,337	Norfolk South West	947	518	64	44	0	0	0	0	1,573
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Emneth with Outwell	3,567	Norfolk South West	1,599	565	97	140	0	0	0	0	2,401
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Hilgay with Denver	1,801	Norfolk South West	914	233	33	32	0	0	0	0	1,212
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Mershe Lande	1,850	Norfolk South West	806	306	53	80	0	0	0	0	1,245
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	North Downham	1,557	Norfolk South West	658	309	49	32	0	0	0	0	1,048
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	South Downham	1,633	Norfolk South West	681	302	45	71	0	0	0	0	1,099
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	St Lawrence	1,891	Norfolk South West	925	271	39	38	0	0	0	0	1,273
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Upwell and Delph	3,576	Norfolk South West	1,644	539	88	136	0	0	0	0	2,407
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Watlington	1,846	Norfolk South West	664	394	105	78	0	0	0	0	1,241
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Wiggenhall	1,578	Norfolk South West	664	274	50	73	0	0	0	0	1,061
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Wimbotsham with Fincham	1,882	Norfolk South West	969	226	38	34	0	0	0	0	1,267
King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Wissey	1,715	Norfolk South West	736	307	43	67	0	0	0	0	1,153
	Total	74,072		30,370	14,116	2,465	2,495	103	0	0	32	49,581

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Thetford and Downham Market. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Elizabeth Truss (CON)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	74,072
Turnout:	66.9%

Thetford and Downham Market: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Thetford and Downham Market: Overview

Introduction